Does judgment improve macroeconomic density forecasts?
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents empirical evidence on how judgmental adjustments affect the accuracy of macroeconomic density forecasts. Judgment is defined as difference between professional forecasters’ densities and forecast from statistical models. Using entropic tilting, we evaluate whether judgments about mean, variance skew improve forecasts for UK output growth inflation. We find that not all help. Judgments point tend to at short horizons times heightened uncertainty. hinder horizons, but can tail risk longer horizons. in general take value away, with gains seen only horizon when models took learn downside risks had reduced end Great Recession. Overall, prove hard beat.
منابع مشابه
Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters
In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability. I test a cross-sectional implication of models of reputation and information-revelation. I find that as forecasters become older and more established, they produce more radi...
متن کاملUsing contingency approach to improve firms’ financial performance forecasts
One of the challenging issues for investors and professionals is appropriate models to evaluate financial situation of the firms. In this regard, many models have been extracted by researchers using different financial ratios to resolve these issues. However, choosing a model based on the conditions and users’ needs is complex. The main objective of this study is to identify the effect of conti...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.007